Political betting searches jumped in the United Kingdom this week after Reform UK’s sweeping victory in the May 7 local elections, gaining over 400 council seats and sending Labour to its worst local election result in decades. Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, trended in the UK as users searched for a way to trade on what happens next in British politics. The problem: Polymarket is geoblocked for UK residents. Here is what the law says, why it is blocked, and what UK users can legally use instead.
What Is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a US-based decentralised prediction market that lets users bet on the outcome of real-world events using cryptocurrency. Each market is a yes-or-no question: a contract resolves at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not. Market prices reflect the crowd’s implied probability of an outcome. With over $3.7 billion wagered on the 2024 US presidential election alone, Polymarket has become the reference point for event-driven probability in finance and politics.
The platform runs on the Polygon blockchain and requires a crypto wallet and USDC (a USD-pegged stablecoin) to participate. There is no centralised operator taking a spread. Instead, a market maker system and liquidity providers set prices in real time based on where money is flowing.
Is Polymarket Legal in the UK?
No. Polymarket does not hold a licence from the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC), and the platform actively geoblocks UK users. Attempting to access Polymarket from a UK IP address brings up an access-denied page citing geographic restrictions. This is not a technical glitch. It is a deliberate compliance decision.
Why Is Polymarket Blocked in the UK?
There are two separate legal frameworks that make Polymarket’s current model incompatible with UK law.
The first is the Gambling Act 2005, which requires any operator offering gambling services to UK consumers to hold a UKGC licence. Prediction markets where users risk money on uncertain outcomes fall within the definition of gambling under UK law. Without a licence, operating or using such a platform counts as unlicensed remote gambling.
The second issue is the Financial Conduct Authority’s binary options ban. Since 2019, the FCA has prohibited the marketing, distribution, and sale of binary options to retail consumers in the UK. A binary option is a contract that settles at one of two fixed values. In Polymarket’s case, that is $1 or $0. The FCA ruled that binary options carry a high risk of consumer harm and banned them outright for retail investors. Because Polymarket contracts structurally match the definition of a binary option, they fall under this ban regardless of the underlying technology.
These two frameworks together make Polymarket inaccessible by design for UK users, not by accident.
What Happens If You Use a VPN?
Technically, some UK users access Polymarket via VPN by masking their IP address. Polymarket’s terms of service explicitly prohibit this. Beyond the terms of service violation, using a VPN to circumvent the geoblock creates three real problems.
First, you lose all regulatory protection. The UKGC’s protections, including dispute resolution, responsible gambling safeguards, and fund segregation requirements, do not apply to unlicensed platforms. If a smart contract fails or a market resolves incorrectly, there is no authority to appeal to.
Second, your crypto gains are still taxable. HMRC treats USDC holdings as capital assets. Profits from Polymarket positions are subject to Capital Gains Tax, not treated as tax-free gambling winnings. Not reporting these gains is a compliance risk regardless of how you accessed the platform.
Third, the legal ambiguity sits with you as the user, not with Polymarket. The platform has disclaimed all responsibility for users who circumvent its geographic restrictions.
Legal UK Alternatives to Polymarket
Two platforms offer prediction market-style political trading under full UKGC licences.
Betfair Exchange is the largest peer-to-peer betting exchange in the world and operates legally in the UK. Betfair’s political markets allow trading on elections, party leadership contests, and referendum outcomes in the same way Polymarket works: you trade against other users, not against the house. Prices move in real time based on where money is flowing. Betfair currently has active markets on the next UK Prime Minister, the 2029 general election result, and Labour leadership succession following the local election losses.
Smarkets is a smaller, London-based exchange with a similar structure to Betfair and full UKGC authorisation. It has historically offered competitive political markets and charges lower commission rates than Betfair on most events. Smarkets had active UK election markets in the lead-up to and aftermath of the May 7 local results, and its political section covers the same Farage-versus-Starmer narrative that is drawing search interest right now.
Both platforms are available in the UK with no VPN required, full regulatory protection, and consumer dispute mechanisms if something goes wrong.
Will Polymarket Ever Be Available in the UK?
Polymarket has not announced any plans to apply for a UKGC licence or FCA authorisation. The UKGC approval process is one of the most demanding in the world: operators must demonstrate segregated player funds, anti-money laundering procedures, and robust responsible gambling infrastructure. Polymarket’s decentralised structure, which relies on smart contracts and crypto wallets rather than a centralised operator, sits awkwardly against these requirements.
The more likely path is that UK-compliant exchanges like Betfair and Smarkets absorb the demand. There is a broader regulatory conversation happening in the US and Europe about prediction markets, and if that leads to clearer frameworks, a future version of Polymarket may pursue licences in major markets. There is no timeline for this.
For now, UK residents who want to trade on political outcomes, including the growing probability of Reform UK triggering pressure for an early general election, have two legitimate routes: Betfair and Smarkets. Polymarket remains off the table until UK regulations change or Polymarket pursues a licence of its own.